Editing Guides/Probability (section)

== Astrological considerations ==
We're only interested in the fail and degrade modifiers here, the exact way that the fail modifier works is unknown (to the author at this point). The degrade modifier works as follows: it's added to the "10k base", this means if ''dm'' is the value of your degrade modifier and the chance for an item to break is ''b'' in 10k, then the actual chance to break is ''b'' in (10k+''dm''). If you have the [[No More Tears Perk]] (possibly by using the cape) the modified value is multiplied by 4. Now, the degrade modifier varies from -900 to 900, looking at the best case, an item with a break rate of 1 in 10k we see that for those items the difference of 1 in 10k to 1 in 10,900 or 9,100 is not very large (0.01% compared to 0.009% or 0.011%). Looking at a rather bad case, say [[Mortar & Pestle|mortars and pestles]], with a chance to break of 1 in 300, so roughly 33 in 10k, comparing the probabilities we see that we'll either break 3 more or less depending on astrology. If you've used mortars and pestles on a "bad day" you will think this unlikely, statistically however it's actually true.